In considering all-out nuclear war, we have to ask a further question: Then what? The logic of nuclear deterrence suggests that it's never in the interest of a nuclear power to engage in war with another country possessing nuclear weapons, as that would lead to mutually assured destruction. And the effects of nuclear war would extend well beyond the warring nations, possibly including climate change severe enough to threaten much of the planets human population. India possesses nuclear weapons and previously developed chemical weapons.Although India has not released any official statements about the size of its nuclear arsenal, recent estimates suggest that India has 160 nuclear weapons and has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 200 nuclear weapons. Nothing can justify the use of nuclear weapons. The United States ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, on Sunday accused Putin of continuing to escalate this war in a manner that is totally unacceptable. In 2015, Russia threatened Danish warships with nuclear weapons if Denmark joined NATOs missile defense system. People outside this radius would still be likely to suffer first or second-degree burns. Hurricane-force winds would demolish buildings that do not have steel-reinforced concrete, and people in this area would be likely to be injured or killed by the collapsing structures and debris carried by the high winds. Casualties from a major nuclear war between the US and Russia would reach hundreds of millions. There are about 50,000 square inches in the front wall of a modest house and that means 50,000 pounds or 25 tons of force even at 1 psi overpressure. The US' vary from around 100 to 1,200 kilotons, while the two other nuclear states in NATO alongside the Americans - the UK and France, who have significantly fewer warheads than the US and Russia - possess weapons in the low hundred kilotons. With fears growing of a new conflict in Europe billed as the worst since World War Two, maps have shown how much damage bombs could cause if fired from Russia. Many people including your authors believe that misfortune to be the likely outcome of almost any use of nuclear weapons among the superpowers. As they gyrate in Earths magnetic field, the electrons generate an intense pulse of radio waves known as an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Nuclear deterrence comes with tremendous risks and enormous costs. Such weapons can be launched on the same short-range missiles Russia is currently using to bombard Ukraine, such as its Iskander ballistic missile, which has a range of about 500 kilometers. How Much Area Can a Nuclear Bomb Destroy? At first glance, the reality of mutual vulnerability might seem to cancel out the relevance of nuclear weapons in U.S.-Russian relations. Roughly speaking, though, the distance at which overpressure has fallen to about 5 psi is a good definition of destructive radius. If both sides can do the most grievous damage to each other under any realistic circumstances, many question whether it is plausible they would ever be used. According to a simulator created by the Outrider Foundation, a US-based body that campaigns against nuclear weapons and climate change, a 300-kiloton nuclear bomb detonated in the air would, within a fraction of a second of detonation, create a fireball measuring just over one square kilometre. Initial radiation, also known as prompt radiation, consists of gamma rays and neutrons produced within a minute of the detonation. According to NukeMap, a tool that estimates the impact of an attack, just over one million people would be killed if a 300-kiloton nuclear bomb were to be dropped on New York City, while a further two million people would be left injured. Enormous amounts of masonry, glass, wood, metal, and other debris created by the initial shock wave will fly at velocities above 160 km (100 miles) per hour, causing further destruction. Small fission weapons like those used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki produce locally significant fallout. How many nuclear weapons does Russia have? Staying indoors for 48 hours after a nuclear blast is now recommended. As youll soon see, the two types of blasts have different implications for radioactive fallout. However, this assumes a chain of events where everything unfolds as expected. Why Does a Mushroom Cloud Look Like a Mushroom? What risks might such elimination entail? The first test of a fission ("atomic") bomb released an amount of energy . What would be the consequences of all-out nuclear war? The fireball glows visibly from its own heat so visibly that the early stages of a 1-megaton fireball are many times brighter than the Sun even at a distance of 50 miles. Thermal flash burns extend well beyond the 5-psi radius of destruction. We publish thought-provoking excerpts, interviews, and original essays written for a general reader but backed by academic rigor. Heres a hypothetical scenario: After its 2014 annexation of Crimea, Russia attacks a Baltic country with tanks and ground forces while the United States is distracted by a domestic crisis. Thus 1 bomb with a yield of 1 megaton would destroy 80 square miles. The remaining 15 percent is released as initial radiation, produced within the first minute or so, and residual (or delayed) radiation, emitted over a period of time, some of which can be in the form of local fallout. The most immediate effect of a nuclear explosion is an intense burst of nuclear radiation, primarily gamma rays and neutrons. He said the alliance would inevitably be drawn into a fight before reminding the world that his country is still one of the leading nuclear states. The volume encompassing a given level of destruction depends directly on the weapons yield. A single nuclear explosion might produce 10,000 cases of severe burns requiring specialized medical treatment; in an all-out war there could be several million such cases. But some would be killed beyond the 5-psi distance, making the situation roughly equivalent to having everyone within the 5-psi circle killed and everyone outside surviving. An all-out nuclear war would leave survivors with few means of recovery, and could lead to a total breakdown of society. Follow Nina Tannenwald on Twitter. But Nukemap shows US and UK bombs could cause as much damage to Moscow should they ever be used. Explore our digital archive back to 1845, including articles by more than 150 Nobel Prize winners. One 100-kiloton nuclear weapon dropped on New York City could lead to roughly 583,160 fatalities, . Any nuclear weapon used any time is a strategic game changer. Russian leaders have made clear that they would view any nuclear attack as the start of an all-out nuclear war. Russia has about 4,500 nuclear warheads in its arsenal. What can nuclear weapons do? Nuclear weapons are commonly divided into two categories: strategic weapons those being the longer-range missiles that can cross oceans and threaten rival superpowers and tactical. The destruction unleashed by firing the full load of 24 Tridents would be horrendous. What governmental structures could function in the postwar climate? Activate your account. electromagnetic pulse (EMP) An intense burst of radio waves produced by a high-altitude nuclear explosion, capable of damaging electronic equipment over thousands of miles. However, North Korea didnt respond at all, making analysts wonder whether the bombers were even detected. Anyone exposed within a 6.8-mile radius of the impact would almost certainly suffer third-degree burns . On the other side of the ledger, NATOs nuclear weapons presumably deter Russia from expanding the war to NATO countries, such as Poland, Romania or the Baltic states. The greater the overpressure, the more likely that a given structure will be damaged by the sudden impact of the wave front. Of this total, about 700 warheads are rated at 800 kilotons; that is, each has the explosive power of 800,000 tons of TNT. But nuclear strategists have explored many scenarios that fall short of the all-out nuclear exchange. Two nuclear detonations have already occurred in Ukraine, as part of the Soviet Union's "Program No. NATO cannot tolerate such aggression and to prevent further Russian advance launches low-yield tactical nuclear weapons with their dial-a-yield positions set to the lowest settings of only 300 tons TNT equivalent. Investigation proves so-called Havana syndrome not caused by foreign country. How could people know what was happening throughout the country? Nuclear weapons have never been used in a war since 1945, when the two atomic bombs dropped by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki devastated the Japanese cities . Those are the real issues in the ongoing debates about the future of nuclear weaponry. Suppose a nuclear adversary decided to cripple the U.S. nuclear retaliatory forces (a virtual impossibility, given nuclear missile submarines, but a scenario considered with deadly seriousness by nuclear planners). This is the notion that in response to a threatening action by North Korea, the U.S. would destroy a significant site to bloody Pyongyangs nose. This might employ a low-yield nuclear attack or a conventional attack. By making nuclear weapons smaller and the targeting more precise, their use becomes more thinkable. Richard Wolfson and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress reveal the most horrifying realities of nuclear war. The intense heat can ignite fires and cause severe burns on exposed flesh as far as 20 miles from a large thermonuclear explosion. This hot gas radiates its energy in the form of X-rays, which heat the surrounding air. Right now,. During WWI the act of hearing was recast as a tactical activity one that could determine human and even national survival. In the worst scenario, if the war is going badly, Putin could reach for a tactical nuclear weapon out of desperation. Thats because a door has lots of square inches about 3,000 or more. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress is Scientist-in-Residence at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. direct radiation Nuclear radiation produced in the actual detonation of a nuclear weapon and constituting the most immediate effect on the surrounding environment. During World War II, bombing of Hamburg with incendiary chemicals resulted in a firestorm that claimed 45,000 lives. Most obvious is that Putin is using nuclear deterrence not to protect Russia but rather to have his way in Ukraine. While this is still unlikely, the risk is not zero. Those scientific experts weren't buying what the Biden administration was . The term fallout generally applies to those isotopes whose half-lives exceed the time scale of the blast and other short-term effects. There is every reason to believe that a limited nuclear war wouldnt remain limited. A Tomahawk cruise missile, the kind widely used by the US, has a top speed of 550 mph. Online tool Nukemap and its sister site Missilemap built by nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein show the potential catastrophic outcomes if east-west tensions ever did result in WW3. The world would be better off without these weapons. Radioactive fallout would contaminate air, soil, water and the food supply (Ukrainians are already familiar with this kind of outcome because of the disastrous meltdown of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor in 1986). Harry and Meghan break silence after Charles evicts them from Frogmore Cottage, Emmerdale spoilers: Triple exit as Amy and Matty leave the village with Kyle, Winter Love Island 2023 final date confirmed and its just around the corner. But the fission-fusion-fission design used in todays thermonuclear weapons introduces the new phenomenon of global fallout. While President Biden's White House raised doubts that Putin would indeed use any of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists ominously reset its Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest since its creation in 1947. So 1/100 psi adds up to a lot of pounds. (This is not the first dust-induced extinction pondered by science. Though their energy is only about 3 percent of the total released in a nuclear explosion, they can cause a considerable proportion of the casualties. Discover world-changing science. Thanks for reading Scientific American. Both nuclear and conventional weapons produce destructive blast effects, although of vastly different magnitudes. In the scenario described, sensors could have been damaged or lines of communication severed that would have reported the low-yield nature of the nuclear weapons. This thermal flash lasts many seconds and accounts for more than one-third of the weapons explosive energy. In the absence of this ozone layer, more ultraviolet radiation would reach Earths surface, with a variety of harmful effects. Fallout would also contaminate a significant fraction of U.S. cropland for up to year and would kill livestock. Some students of nuclear war see postwar society in a race against time. Those on the receiving end of a nuclear strike are not likely to ask whether it was tactical or strategic. Small wonder that the international group Physicians for Social Responsibility has called nuclear war the last epidemic.. It could also affect satellites used for military communications, reconnaissance, and attack warning. Two-thirds of injured Hiroshima survivors showed evidence of such flash burns. The blatant aggression against Ukraine has shocked Europe and the world. This statement alone is a cause for concern whether or not it is true. Hawaiians, only 800 miles from the island, experienced a bright flash followed by a green sky and the failure of hundreds of street lights. The war also would have destroyed stocks of food and other materials needed for survival. That time allows fallout levels to decay by a factor of 100. (For a graphic depiction, the interactive site NUKEMAP, created by nuclear historian Alexander Wellerstein, allows you to simulate the effects of a nuclear explosion of any size anywhere on the planet.) Deterrence refers to the idea that possessing nuclear weapons protects a nation from attack, through the threat of overwhelming retaliation. MORE : Russia-Ukraine conflict live: Dozens dead as President Vladimir Putin launches invasion, MORE : Chelsea should be seized from Roman Abramovich as part of sanctions, MP says. A retired Russian admiral says the range is 2,000-km. The question of firestorms is important not only to the residents of a target area: Firestorms might also have significant long-term effects on the global climate, as well discuss later. The inward-rushing winds and the extremely high temperatures generated in a firestorm consume virtually everything combustible. Fires started by the thermal flash or by blast effects still rage, and under some circumstances they may coalesce into a single gigantic blaze called a firestorm that can develop its own winds and thus cause the fire to spread. This is a chilling development, United Nations Secretary General Antnio Guterres told a special session of the UN General Assembly on Monday. It is a primary obligation of leaders today to make sure nuclear weapons are never used again. While 8 bombs, each with a yield of 125 kilotons, would destroy 160 square miles. If youve ever tried to open a door against a strong wind, youve experienced overpressure. The war is a tragedy for Ukraine. However, Russias invasion of Ukraine casts a harsh light on its downsides. In 1999, India was estimated to have 800 kilograms (1,800 lb) of separated reactor-grade . Increasingly, crucial electronic systems are hardened to minimize the impact of EMP. Those living near targeted bomber and submarine bases would suffer blast and local radiation effects. Even a small-yield nuclear weapon (0.3 kilotons) would produce damage far beyond that of a conventional explosive. As the rapidly expanding fireball pushes into the surrounding air, it creates a blast wave consisting of an abrupt jump in air pressure. Radioactive particles would remain in the environment, contaminating it for years to come; for example, they would be absorbed by crops and, as a result, work their way into our food chain. Many of the 48 contiguous states have at least one target a nuclear bomber base, a submarine support base, or intercontinental missile silos that would warrant destruction in such an attack. Security As of today, nine countries hold a total of 15000 nuclear weapons according to ICAN (International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons) which are more than enough to end the civilization and life on Earth as we know it. Many of the modern nuclear weapons in Russian and U.S. nuclear weapons are thermonuclear weapons and have explosive yields of the equivalent at least 100 kilotons of dynamite - and some are much higher. Even a much smaller nuclear exchange could have catastrophic climate consequences. According to its mission statement, the project was focused on "damaging the important components of the adversary's economy in a coastal area and inflicting unacceptable damage to a country's. It carries about half the bombs explosive energy and is responsible for most of the physical destruction. A related destructive effect comes from the dynamic pressure, or high-velocity wind, that accompanies the shock wave. The latest Tridents carry about 8 independent warheads per missile. The fallout produced in a nuclear explosion depends greatly on the type of weapon, its explosive yield, and where its exploded. But preventing nuclear war is not the sole goal of any . We have an agreement with Russia that we won't be deploying these in large numbers, only eno Continue Reading 90 16 Sponsored by The Penny Hoarder No one should imagine, however, that it makes sense to use a tactical nuclear weapon. Why did Republican Senator Mike Lees Twitter account gets banned and then reinstated? This reduces local fallout but enhances global fallout. The catchy concept is that use of a few low-yield nuclear weapons could show resolve, with the hoped-for outcome that the other party will back down from its aggressive behavior (this concept is known as escalate to deescalate). The upper atmosphere includes a layer enhanced in ozone gas, an unusual form of oxygen that vigorously absorbs the Suns ultraviolet radiation. Could they really remain limited? But intense gamma rays knock electrons out of atoms in the surrounding air, and when the explosion takes place in the rarefied air at high altitude this effect may extend hundreds of miles. By pushing back the surrounding air, the rapid expansion of the fireball would cause a shockwave measuring around 70 square kilometres. The ICRC also noted that children under 10 who were exposed to atomic radiation in 1945 went on to be four times more likely than the general population to be diagnosed with leukaemia. So a 450kt weapon does not cause 22.5x as much damage as the bomb dropped on Nagasaki. The results settle an earlier controversy about whether survivors should evacuate or shelter in place: Staying indoors for 48 hours after a nuclear blast is now recommended. Within individual target cities, conditions described earlier for single explosions would prevail. This strategy is actually being discussed in the higher echelons of the Pentagon. Even as U.S. presidents pay lip service to "a world without nuclear weapons," the U.S. currently has an estimated total inventory of just over 5,400 nuclear weapons ranging from 0.3 kilotons up to 1.2 megatons. And increasing that risk is unacceptable. Uncertainty in North Koreas ability to discriminate different weapon systems might exacerbate a situation like this one and could lead the North Koreans viewing any intrusion as an attack on their nation, their way of life and their honor. This is exactly how the Soviet team in the Proud Prophet war game interpreted it. That is a very big nuclear question so big that its best left unanswered, since only an all-out nuclear war could decide it definitively. They continue to worry about the (remote) possibility of a Russian conventional attack beyond Ukraine. A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission (fission bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion reactions (thermonuclear bomb), producing a nuclear explosion.Both bomb types release large quantities of energy from relatively small amounts of matter. According to a simulator created by the Outrider Foundation, a US-based body that campaigns against nuclear weapons and climate change, a 300-kiloton nuclear bomb detonated in the air would,. As a result, Russia might feel its homeland threatened and respond with an all-out attack using strategic nuclear weapons, resulting in millions of deaths. 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